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Technical Reports

  • USDCAD: Collapses, Halts Upside Offensive
    USDCAD: The pair ended the week lower after an attempt on the upside failed the past week and pushed USDCAD to a low of 1.0384 on Friday. With that said, we think a follow through lower should see the pair weakening further towards the 1.0246 level, its Aug 19’10 low
  • Weekly Technical Update: Greenback Weakened Post Non-Farm Payroll
    The USD was in consolidation/ correction mode this week ahead of the NFP. This is in a sense the market's way of paring some overextended USD gains, but also offers a chance for the market to continue with greenback strength. There was some dollar strength immediately after the release, but
  • USDJPY: Retains Its Broader Downside Bias
    USDJPY: The pair continues to retain its broader downside bias as it looks to recapture its YTD low at 83.58 despite its price hesitation. A breach of there will open the door for more downside towards the 82.00 level, its psycho level with a cut through there aiming at the 81.00 level.
  • EUR/GBP Developing a Double Top; Reward to Risk Assessment
    The daily chart shows the EUR/GBP going up against a declining trendline. The market is reacting by pausing the rally at 50% retracement, 0.8350 level. Note the RSI is remaining under 60 for now and is turning lower. The 0.8400 area is 61.8% retracement, and is the resistance zone for
  • FX Thoughts for the Day
    Cable has been moving in a small range of 1.5350-450 and may move within the same region till the US session today. Later today, or in the coming days, we expect the pair to move down towards the Support at 1.5300 (honour it or test it on a weekly basis),
  • AUDUSD: Maintains Above The 0.9078 Level
    The pair remains biased to the upside having held firmly above the 0.9078 level. This has created scope for more upside towards the 0.9219 level. While this level may present a considerable resistance on initial test, we believe it should give way for a run towards its May 04'10 high
  • Technical Analysis Daily: USD/JPY
    On Thursday Dollar/Yen decreased slightly, in converse with the positive Interbank sentiment at around +11%. The currency couple depreciated from 84.55 to 84.04 yesterday, closing the day at 84.27. Today the trading is hesitant with unconvincing bearish efforts for now. On the 1 hour chart the trading is back within
  • Daily Forex Update: USD/CHF
    The downtrend on the USD/CHF continues. Downtrends present three possible entry opportunities: continuation, correction, or reversal. Due to the downtrend's strength it's very likely that a continuation and/or a correction (also known as a Retracement) will occur. The decision to focus on more selling pressure comes primarily from the Channel
  • Currency Crosses Pairs Analysis
    EUR/GBP Longer term bias switched to bearish now that the cross has breached key support in 0.8400 area.  Intraday: we didn't get the follow through in the breakout we expected to conside a change of direction. Staying bearish unless we see this weeks close above 0.8350 level.
  • Forex Technical Analysis
    EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are descending, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.3458 and 1.4206.

Fundamental Reports

  • Dollar Index Falls to Support on Better Job Data
    The dollar, while rising against the yen and Swiss franc, fell versus other key counterparts after better-thanexpected US employment data eased concern of a double-dip recession. For the week, all the major crosses except sterling rose against the greenback. Private-sector payrolls grew more than expected in August and job losses
  • Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary
    For a generation of Americans brought up on action heroes who face impossible challenges and then win the day, the results of fiscal and monetary stimulus are disappointing. Yet, the level of pessimism and talk of a double-dip strike us as too much of a bad thing. This week we
  • The Weekly Bottom Line
    We had some fairly positive data this week, starting with expansions in both personal income and consumption for the month of July. Then the Conference Board's consumer confidence index surprised market expectations on the upside and the ISM manufacturing index also fared better than expected underpinned by a surprisingly strong
  • Risk Rebounds on Improving Global Data
    The past week began with disappointment stemming from Japan's lack of direct currency intervention and risk aversion looked probable to continue into the week. This was not the case as better than expected Australian 2Q GDP started a ripple effect culminating into a global wave of positive data surprises. Upbeat
  • Is this an Audacious Obama Hope Rally?
    The strong rally in risk into today's close in the US today can't be about this week's economic data particularly as the ISM non-manufacturing index for August showed a steep deceleration. So why the rally? The combination of an equity rally and a lousy ISM resulted in the predictable
  • The QE Case for Gold & Silver
    The case for metals remains not that of outright inflation but that of central banks prolonged liquidity drives. Currencies will gain/fall versus one another, but fresh asset purchases will maintain gold and silver ahead. Rising metals remained the consistent play over the past 2 months, supporting my near-term gold outlook
  • G10 FX: JPY, CHF - Where Next?
    A relentless squeeze in JPY and Swiss Franc has driven both currencies to overbought levels last seen at the end of 2009. With key BoJ and SNB meetings scheduled over the next two weeks, this begs the question if profit taking and a trend reversal in JPY and Franc vs
  • Weekly Focus: A Sense of Relief
    Following a wall of discouraging data recently things turned more upbeat this week, as we received positive surprises from both the US and China coupled with a continued flow of solid eurozone data. There is little doubt that the US remains in a slowdown phase. However, the data published so
  • The Week in Review
    The US Non-farm employment data posted better than expected results and revisions to the markets delight. As a result, we saw improved risk appetite. Expectations were for an overall loss of over 100,000 jobs and an increase in the private sector by 42,000 jobs. The street was pleased to see
  • Horrible ISM Non-Manufacturing - All Change?
    The US ISM non-manufacturing report should be considered the premiere survey of US business conditions as it covers the US services industries, which represent some 70% of the US economy. Today's report for August was very negative, at a barely expansive 51.5 vs. 53.2 expected and 54.3 in July. Particularly

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